Braves hope to break out the brooms against Phils
Baseball Betting Lines
07/02/2009 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Atlanta Braves are gradually working their way up the NL East standings and will try to extend their winning streak to a season-high four straight games tonight in the finale of a three-game series versus the Philadelphia Phillies at Turner Field.
Atlanta and Florida are the hottest teams in the division right now, as the Braves sit three games off Philadelphia's pace in the East and the Marlins are currently just a half-game behind the Phillies. The Braves posted their third win in a row with Wednesday's 11-1 bashing of 2008 World Series MVP Cole Hamels and the Phillies with a 14-hit attack.
Matt Diaz clubbed a two-run homer and finished with three hits, while Diory Hernandez belted a solo shot for the Braves, who got two hits and three RBI out of veteran Chipper Jones. Brian McCann and Martin Prado both had two hits in Atlanta's third win since a four-game losing streak.
Braves starter Jair Jurrjens had his no-hit bid broken up in the seventh inning by Paul Bako and allowed one run on just the one hit to go along with six strikeouts and four walks in seven frames for the win.
"I wasn't thinking (of the no-hitter). I was just trying to throw strikes early in the count, make them get themselves out," said Jurrjens.
Kris Medlen and Manny Acosta completed the two-hitter with a combined two innings of scoreless relief.
The Braves are 1-6 in Javier Vazquez's last seven starts and will roll the rice with him again this evening versus the Phillies. Vazquez is 1-4 over his last seven trips to the mound and lost his most recent outing on June 27 versus Boston. He held the Red Sox to a run and six hits over 7 2/3 decent innings, but fell to 2-5 in nine home starts this season.
Vazquez, who is 5-7 with a 3.04 ERA in 16 total starts, will face the Phillies for the third time this season. He is 1-0 in two appearances so far and 11-7 with a 4.45 ERA in 25 career games. The righty beat the Phils on May 9 at Citizens Bank Park with 7 2/3 innings of two-run ball.
Philadelphia is rapidly falling from grace and has dropped 13 of its last 17 games to watch its division lead shrink to just a half-game ahead of the suddenly-surging Marlins. The despised New York Mets are only two games in back of the Phillies, who would like to put last night's loss behind them.
Bako and Shane Victorino recorded the only hits for Philly, and Jimmy Rollins finished 0-for-3 at the plate to run his hitless streak to a career-worst 27 official at-bats. Rollins' previous career high had been a 25 at-bat hitless streak from June 18-24, 2002.
Hamels was rocked for seven runs and nine hits in only four innings of work to fall to 4-5 on the season.
"It's a challenging year," Hamels said on the team's site. "Not every time you got there, every season is going to be great. You have the years where you really have to learn who you are. You have to take what you did last year, kind of the ups, downs and really battle through it. I think that's where you learn who you are and what you're going to be capable of in the future. Things aren't going to be easy. You're put on a big pedestal when you win and win awards. You expect a lot out of yourself. And I expect a lot out of myself."
Philadelphia, which opens a three-game home series versus the Mets on Friday, will expect a lot from tonight's starter J.A. Happ. Happ will bring his unbeaten record to the mound for the Phillies and is 5-0 with a 3.00 ERA in 19 games (7 starts) this season. Happ is coming off the first shutout of his career, as he twirled nine innings of five-hit ball in a 10-0 victory at Toronto on June 27.
Happ struck out four and did not walk a batter at Rogers Centre, improving to 3-0 with a 1.67 ERA in nine road games (4 starts) this season. The young lefty will face Atlanta for the second time in 2009, as he tossed two innings of relief in a 12-11 win back on April 8. Happ allowed a two-run homer in that game.
Philadelphia went 14-4 against Atlanta a year ago, but the Braves have won six of eight meetings with the Phils so far in 2009. The Phils have dropped the first two tests at Turner Field after going 9-0 there a year ago.
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Today's contest was original
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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?
The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.
While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.
For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.
1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.
2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.
How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.
Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.
Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.
How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).
Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.
Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.
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