Florida State and UCLA meet in the Emerald Bowl
NCAA Football Betting Lines
12/24/2006 - San Francisco, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Florida State Seminoles and the UCLA Bruins meet for the first time ever on the gridiron, as they hook up in the Emerald Bowl from AT&T Park in San Francisco.
The Seminoles have had an off year, to say the least, as they bring just a 6-6 record into the game. For some schools that record and a bowl appearance would be acceptable, but not for a FSU program that is accustomed to playing for national championships. Still, this is the 25th straight bowl game appearance by the school, and that is the second longest active streak in the nation. The Seminoles, who set an NCAA record with 11 straight bowl wins from 1985-97, are 20-13-2 all-time in bowl appearances. Head coach Bobby Bowden has a career mark of 19-9-1 in his 29 bowl games, and only Penn State's Joe Paterno (21) has won more postseason games. Bowden however, is in jeopardy of suffering his first losing season at FSU since taking over as head coach in 1976 (5-6).
As for UCLA, it won three straight games down the stretch, including a 13-9 triumph over USC that cost the Trojans a shot at the national title. The Bruins will be participating in a bowl game for the ninth time in the past 10 seasons and they own a 13-13-1 all-time mark in the postseason. Last year, UCLA participated in the Sun Bowl, where it outlasted Northwestern 50-38.
The biggest question for FSU entering this game is who will get the start at quarterback, Drew Weatherford or Xavier Lee? Weatherford started the first seven games of the season, and every game last year, before an injury sidelined him, giving Lee a chance to start. On the year, Weatherford has completed 56.7 percent of his throws for 1,829 yards, but with just 11 touchdowns against 10 interceptions. As for Lee, he is clearly the more mobile of the two, but he also has a strong arm, throwing for 885 yards and seven touchdowns against five interceptions. Whomever is under center, he will surely be looking the way of Chris Davis and Greg Carr. The 6-0 Davis leads the squad in both catches (46) and receiving yards (651), while the 6-6 Carr has provided the team with a threat in the red-zone, catching a club-best 11 touchdowns. As for the ground attack, it is paced by the duo of Lorenzo Booker and Antone Smith. The two have combined for 981 rushing yards and seven touchdowns, although Booker figures to see most of the carries with Smith being listed as questionable with a dislocated elbow.
While the offense has done a decent job this season, it is FSU's defense that is the strength of this team. The Seminoles have had a tremendous amount of success slowing down their opponents, although they are allowing 19.2 ppg, mainly because of the bad spots they have been put in by the offense. Still, the unit is giving up a mere 278.9 total ypg, including just 84.1 ypg on the ground. The knock on this unit, though, is that it hasn't generated enough turnovers, posting just 16 thus far. Buster Davis heads the Seminoles with 102 tackles and he also has seven TFLs and five sacks to his name. Lawrence Timmons has also been a force, as he leads the team in TFLs (18) to go along with 74 stops and five sacks.
Much like FSU, UCLA had its own controversy at quarterback, as an injury to Ben Olson midway through the season gave Patrick Cowan a chance to show his stuff. Olson started the first five games, completing 63.7 percent of his throws for 822 yards, but he suffered a knee injury on October 7th and hasn't played since. Meanwhile, Cowan has taken over, and following a rough start, he has led the team to three straight wins to close out the regular season, including the triumph over rival USC. In 11 appearances (six starts), Cowan has completed 54.2 percent of his throws for 1,542 yards with nine touchdowns and seven interceptions. The Bruins don't possess any one standout wide receiver, as Marcus Everett leads the team with just 403 receiving yards and five touchdowns. Tailback Chris Markey actually paces the squad in catches (33) and he is the center piece of this offense. Markey may have good hands, but his legs are what make him dangerous, rushing for 963 yards behind a 4.6 ypc average this season. He has carried the ball over 200 times, and he will surely see a majority of the touches in this game.
Defensively, the Bruins have been outstanding this season, as they are holding their opponents to 17.9 ppg and 304.8 total ypg. The unit has really fared well against the run, giving up just 89.9 ypg and only seven touchdowns on the ground. This defense has also excelled in the turnover department, generating 26 miscues, including 12 interceptions. Another strength of this unit has been its ability to get to opposing quarterbacks, posting an impressive 39 sacks. Bruce Davis and Justin Hickman have been the major reasons for the team's ability to get into the backfield, and they will surely cause havoc in this one. The duo have not only combined for an eye-popping 25 sacks, but they also have posted a total of 35 TFLs.
This should be a good one, as both teams are similar in the sense that they rely heavily on their defense to keep them in games. UCLA however, has a difference maker in Markey and his ability to run hard all game long should give the Bruins enough of an edge to pull out the win.
Sportsbook Betting Lines Predicted Outcome: UCLA 23, Florida State 20
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Betting Football
NFL Football Betting OnlineIs there such a thing as a trap game in the NFL?
I once asked that question to Pete Korner, who at the time was office manager and a senior linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.
Korner almost ripped my head off. There is no such thing as a trap game, he loudly berated me. It’s a myth. The numbers are made using power ratings, he said.
There are trap games, though. They just might not be what you think. The perception is of a good team, say Philadelphia, laying a small number against New Orleans.
Using the highly-respected power ranking from The Gold Sheet, you’d find the Eagles with a power rating of 4 and the Saints at 8. When you factor the game being played in New Orleans, you could see why the line opened so short at less than a field goal.
For some, this makes it enticing to take the Eagles. That’s not a real trap game, though.
A real trap game, says professional gambler Dave Malinsky, is thinking you’re getting value betting a bad team, which brings us to the Oakland Raiders-Denver Broncos matchup.
The Raiders are +15 in this long-standing division rivalry. Denver is on a short week having dispatched Baltimore Monday. However, the Raiders haven’t covered the spread their last 10 games.
Many bettors don’t trust the Raiders to give a full effort. Few think much of Art Shell and his Oakland’s coaching staff.
So oddsmakers have to do something to make Oakland attractive if they hope to get equal action.
Now Malinsky is a value shopper. But he won’t touch the Raiders even getting more than two touchdowns.
“I try to eliminate the undisciplined, unfocused teams because they’re the ones most likely to suffer the bad beats,” he said.
Near the top of Malinsky’s list of stay-away teams is the Miami Dolphins, who have yet to cover a spread this season.
“Whatever you think of Nick Saban, you have to look at the penalties and turnovers,” Malinsky said.
It’s easy to point out the Dolphins failed to get the money this past week against New England because Olindo Mare missed a field goal and had another field goal blocked. But even though the Dolphins outgained the Patriots, 283-213, they committed eight penalties.
Bad teams not only cost themselves victories, but pointspread covers as well. The Arizona Cardinals and Green Bay Packers are two more examples.
The Cardinals couldn’t have been in a better position this past Sunday, up 14-0 at home against a mediocre Kansas City Chiefs squad. But they couldn’t hold it. The Packers got a push against St. Louis, but also could have won losing by three when Brett Favre fumbled at the St. Louis 11-yard line with 44 seconds left.
“The Packers were in a position to beat Philadelphia, too,” Malinsky said. “But they couldn’t even cover double digits.
“These teams just make mistakes and it costs you … they always will look good from a value standpoint. They really will. But that’s the trap.”
Houston and Tennessee rank among the six-worst teams. Malinsky wouldn’t be afraid to take either of these teams, however, if the price were high enough.
The Texans are bad, Malinsky said, but they have some discipline. The Titans showed they could not only come up with an outstanding game plan, but execute it as well, losing by one to the Colts on the road as an 18 ?-point underdog this past Sunday.
“Jeff Fisher is a worker,” Malinsky said of the Titans coach. “I’m not sure how hard Art Shell wants to work when he gets out of bed.”
Fisher, though, could be out as Tennessee coach after this season. Is he still worth backing in the right spot, with the right price, as a lame duck coach?
“It’s in his nature to keep working hard and not worry about any possible lame duck status,” Malinsky said. “He’s coaching for his resume.”
Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting lines.
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