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Best Horse Betting Online

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.

MySportsbook.com: NFL draft - The NFC South

In part two of MySportsbook.com’s draft preview, we’ll take a look at a division that was extremely disappointing last season: the NFC South.  Many “experts” predicted the Panthers to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl, of course they could not even make the playoffs in an extremely weak NFC.  The Saints definitely made up for the disappointing seasons of their NFC South brethren by exploding out of no where en route to the NFC Championship game.  For the avid NFL gambler, it is imperative to pay attention to the NFL draft.  Although free agency gets a ton of publicity, the successful franchises build their teams around the draft.

1. New Orleans Saints
Who would have thought this time last year that the Saints would be the favorites to win the NFC South for the 2007 campaign?  New Orleans is loaded with firepower on the offensive side of the ball but with the exodus of Joe Horn they will most likely look to draft a WR on Day 1.  Despite having the NFL’s 3rd ranked pass defense last season, the Saints will most likely upgrade their CB’s with one of their first two picks. Other possibilities for the Saints will be TE and DT.  Because of where they will be selecting (27th), the Saints could go the “best available player” route which could net a LB.

Key additions: Eric Johnson TE, Troy Evans LB, David Patten WR
Key loses: Joe Horn WR,
Team needs: CB, WR, TE, LB, DT
Possible draftees: Aaron Ross CB Texas, Darrelle Revis CB Pitt, Ted Ginn Jr. WR OSU, Paul Posluszny LB PSU, Chris Houston CB Arkansas, Greg Olsen TE Miami

2. Carolina Panthers
Carolina was one of the biggest disappointments in the NFL last season.  With the signing of David Carr, expect the very first quarterback controversy to come out of Carolina if Jake Delhomme doesn’t rebound quickly from an average 2007 season. With veteran safety Mike Minter getting up there in age, they will look to draft a safety on Day 1 but probably not in the first round.  LB is another need with the loss of Chris Draft to go along with Dan Morgan’s concussion problems.  If TE Greg Olsen is still on the board, he might be too good to pass up despite their needs on the defensive side of the ball.

Key additions: David Carr QB
Key loses: Chris Draft LB
Team needs: LB, TE, S, OT
Possible draftees: Greg Olsen TE Miami, Patrick Willis LB Ole Miss, Paul Posluszny LB PSU, Levi Brown OT PSU

3. Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons were another NFC South team to have a disappointing 2007 season.  The Falcons have been plenty busy during the off season with plenty of players coming and going including a new head coach.  The Falcons were able to improve their draft position with the trade of coveted backup QB Matt Schaub.  High on the list of Day 1 needs will be a defensive end to replace Patrick Kerney and a hard hitting safety since Lawyer Milloy is nearing the end of his career.  With an additional 2nd round pick, the Falcons could attempt to trade up to acquire local product WR Calvin Johnson. 

Key additions: Joey Harrington QB, Toniu Fonoti OG, Joe Horn WR
Key loses: Justin Griffen RB, Patrick Kerney DE, Matt Lehr OG, Ashley Lelie WR, Matt Schaub QB
Team needs: DE, S, OT, WR, DT
Possible draftees: LaRon Landry S LSU, Amobi Okoye DT Louisville, Levi Brown OT PSU, Jamaal Anderson DE Arkansas, Alan Branch DT Michigan

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Age really caught up to the Bucs last season.  The Bucs still have plenty of household names on defense in Ronde Barber, Simeon Rice and Derrick Brooks but the one thing those three have in common is unfortunately age.  It is imperative for the Bucs to get much younger, especially on the defensive side of the ball. Despite having bigger needs on the defensive side of the ball, WR Calvin Johnson is the most likely pick if he is still available when the Bucs pick at the four spot.  This would suit Bucs’ faithful just fine as Johnson is widely considered the top talent in the draft and it is a position of need for the Bucs.

Key additions: Jeff Garcia QB, Kevin Carter DE, Torrie Cox CB, Cato June LB
Key loses: Dewayne White DE, Sean Mahan OG
Team needs: WR, LB, DE, CB (Youth on defense!)
Possible draftees: Calvin Johnson WR Georgia Tech, Gains Adams DE Clemson, Jamaal Anderson DE Arkansas

It is never too early to start betting on the NFL. Log on to MySportsbook.com to checkout all of the NFL futures for the upcoming season.  On the clock: the NFC North

Odds to win the NFC South:
New Orleans Saints 8-5
Carolina Panthers 2-1
Atlanta Falcons 12-5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9-2    

Odds to win the NFC:
New Orleans Saints 13-2
Carolina Panthers 7-1
Atlanta Falcons 20-1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 25-1

Odds to win the Super Bowl:
New Orleans Saints 18-1
Carolina Panthers 20-1
Atlanta Falcons 50-1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 75-1

To visit this sportsbook get to MySportsbook.com for all your online sportsbook needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.