Votto helps Reds down Jays
Baseball Betting Lines
06/25/2009 - Toronto, ON (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Joey Votto went 4-for-5 with a double, homer and three runs batted in as the Cincinnati Reds edged the Toronto Blue Jays, 7-5, in the finale of a three-game interleague series at Rogers Centre.
Jay Bruce chipped in with a two-run double and Willy Taveras had three hits with an RBI and run scored for the Reds, who salvaged one win in the series and snapped a four-game slide.
Johnny Cueto (7-4) picked up the win after allowing five runs on as many hits. He struck out four and walked three. Francisco Cordero earned his 18th save of the season with a scoreless ninth inning.
Vernon Wells and Scott Rolen each had a pair of RBI, while Aaron Hill hit a solo homer for Toronto, which had a three-game winning streak halted.
Brett Cecil, who was making only his sixth big league start, lasted only three innings. The lefy was raked for nine hits and five runs while walking three, but did not figure in the decision. Shawn Camp (0-3) was tagged with the loss despite giving up a run on three hits in four innings of relief.
With the game deadlocked at 5-5, Votto, born and raised in the Toronto area, belted a first-pitch slider over the right-field wall to lead off the seventh. The Reds then tacked on another in the eighth. Paul Janish doubled to start the inning, took third on a sacrifice bunt and scored on Taveras' squeeze bunt single.
Cordero took the hill for the bottom of the ninth and issued a one-out walk to Lyle Overbay, but the hard-throwing closer set down Rod Barajas and Russ Adams to end the game.
Cincinnati jumped on Cecil for a four spot in the top of the first. Taveras got things started with a double and after the next two batters were retired, back-to-back RBI doubles by Votto and Jonny Gomes made it 2-0. Ramon Hernandez then drew a walk and Bruce chased in two more with another two-bagger.
Hill's solo homer in the bottom half got the Blue Jays on the board.
Votto's run-scoring single in the second put the Reds in front 5-1. However, Toronto pushed across four runs to even things in the fifth. With the bases loaded and two away, Wells roped a two-run base hit to left, then after a brief mound visit, Rolen's two RBI single up the middle tied it.
Game Notes
Cincinnati opens a three-game interleague set at Cleveland on Friday, while Toronto welcomes Philadelphia to the Rogers Centre...The Reds finished 5- for-14 with runners in scoring position and stranded nine, while the Blue Jays went 2-for-4 with RISP and left four men on base.
Washington, DC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Willie Harris and Josh Bard each finished with three hits and drove in a pair of runs as Washington spoiled the Red Sox debut of John Smoltz with a 9-3 thrashing in the finale of a three-game interle
<< Ramirez slams Marlins past Orioles
Miami, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Hanley Ramirez went 3-for-5 with a grand slam and
five total runs batted in, as the Florida Marlins completed a three-game sweep
of Baltimore with an 11-3 victory.
Rookie Sean West (3-2) tossed six shutout inni
<< Gal leads suspended Wegmans LPGA
Rochester, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Sandra Gal fired an eight-under 64 and held a
one-shot lead Thursday when the rain-delayed first round of the Wegmans LPGA
was suspended due to darkness.
Jiyai Shin stood alone in second place at seven-un
<< CFL announces final cutdowns
Toronto, ON (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Canadian Football League on
Thursday announced its final roster cutdowns before the start of the regular
season.
Below is a list of players released, sorted by team and position:
The B
<< Iles in front at Players Cup
Bridgeport, WV (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Bradley Iles of New Zealand fired a seven-
under-par 65 on Thursday to take the first-round lead at the Nationwide Tour
Players Cup.
Canadian Brad Fritsch posted a six-under 66 at Pete Dye Golf Club and
Pittsburgh, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Andrew McCutchen singled in Jack Wilson with the winning run in the bottom of the ninth inning to boost Pittsburgh over Cleveland, 3-2, in the rubber match of a three-game series. McCutchen, playing in
Smoltz activated from DL, makes season debut >>
Washington, DC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Right-handed pitcher John Smoltz
was activated from the 15-day disabled list on Thursday in time to make his
season and Red Sox debut.
It was not a successful one for the 42-year-old, who w
Knicks get draft rights to Douglas from Lakers >>
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The New York Knicks acquired the draft rights
of Florida State shooting guard Toney Douglas from the Los Angeles Lakers.
The Knicks sent the Lakers 2011 second-round draft choice and cash
considerations.
Do
Knicks send Richardson to Memphis for Milicic >>
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The New York Knicks sent veteran swingman
Quentin Richardson and cash to the Memphis Grizzlies in exchange for forward
Darko Milicic.
The 29-year-old Richardson is coming off a season in which he averaged 10.2
A-Rod reaches Reggie, Yankees outslug Braves >>
Atlanta, GA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Alex Rodriguez moved into a tie for 11th place
on the all-time home run list and finished with four runs batted in to lead
the New York Yankees to an 11-7 win over the Atlanta Braves in the rubber
match o
MySportsbook features easy-to-use online betting software that’s the most reliable in the industry. If you’re looking to bet underdogs, then this Sportsbook is the place - we have the best betting lines in the business. MySportsbook is your one-stop shop for all your betting needs - sports betting, poker, casino, and horse racing . MySportsbook offers every bet type with lightning fast settlement of wagers. Take advantage of free statistical analysis - including against-the-spread and straight-up trends - in MySportsbook’s game previews section. With MySportsbook there are unlimited free deposits and payouts - and no transaction fees!
To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com - this sportsbook accepts credit cards.
How to bet pro football
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
To visit this sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your Sportsbook accepts Visa needs.